Hockey - real live, counts in the standings, totally valid to freak out about hockey - is finally, FINALLY just around the corner. I don't know about the rest of you but I really felt like this off-season was never going to end. Ever. But in 72 hours or so the Sabres will have claimed their first victim of the season - and I mean the Canadiens not me, fellas - so it seems like it's time to lay out a couple of thoughts and predictions about the upcoming season. If I were a real journalist I would sit here until my thoughts were all nicely organized and worked but I'm not. I'm a lowly blogger who's not making any money doing this. Some totally random, unorganized thoughts:
TIMMY, MAX AND AL
Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov and Ales Kotalik are all in contract years and their futures with the Sabres are cloudy at best. I think only one of them - if any - will be in Buffalo next season and they all definitely come with their pros and cons.
We all know how talented Timmy is. He's amazingly gifted and he's shown flashes of really pulling it together especially on the playmaking end. There have been times in the past when he's pulled moves that have left me staring at the TV. I had a game on our Tivo for almost an entire calendar year because of the last goal in this highlight package. I just now watched it three times. The Sabres have taken some crap for making a commitment to a guy who was out with concussion problems at the time but I think that's a blatant use of hindsight. It was a risk but a risk worth taking considering how dominant he'd just been in the postseason.
It's no newsflash that Tim's trouble is injuries. The concussion troubles are bad enough but there always seems to be something else going on too. I will admit that I did actually say to Mark a couple of weeks ago, "I have a good feeling about Timmy this season. I think he's going to play 70 games." I have no idea what I was thinking. A couple of days later he was nursing a sore back already and the preseason had barely started. Granted, he is coming off a surgery but we keep hearing that he worked out really hard the rest of the off-season and he was in great shape and I don't know, while I obviously have no idea what kind of pain he's feeling in that fragile little body of his, I've reached the point where I have to really wonder if he has the toughness and the desire to have the career that he could have if things worked on talent alone. I'm sure Tim understands how much he needs to have a great season - at 27 this could be his last, best chance at a big money contract - and I'm sure he'll have his usual near point a game numbers in the parts of the season he does play... I just don't see him making it through a whole season.
Regardless, I don't think he'll be back next season for one reason: Lindy Ruff sounds more and more frustrated every time he talks about him. I think he's clearly had his fill of "What's going on with Tim?" questions and we all know Lindy has a lot of say in personnel decisions. The Sabres made their commitment, it didn't work out, I really don't see them trying it again especially with so many talented forwards already on the roster and coming up through Portland. It really is too bad.
I said my piece about Max not that long ago. He was terrible last season but while I do find him pretty frustrating I really do think a lot of that can be chalked up to his injury - groin pulls do have to be pretty tough for a guy whose entire game is based on speed and quick cuts - and being played on some very ill-fitting lines once he was back from injury. I'm sure Max will pass the puck to a myriad of opponents and pull Derek Roy offside a million times but I also won't be the least bit surprised if he scores 25-30 goals and has fans reconsidering whether we should get rid of him or not.
But like Timmy, I think Lindy has reached the end of his patience with Max which means he will also be gone, possibly before the end of the season. And like I said before, I think he'll catch on with another team, enjoy the freedom of a new coach and new system and do really well for himself. And all of Buffalo will complain incessantly about letting him go for years to come.
Finally that brings us to Al. Oh, Al. If you made me rank all the Sabres players from favorite to least favorite, Al would be pretty darn close to the bottom. Some nights he would be the bottom, yes, ranked below even Andrew Peters. I find him completely infuriating because people say all the time, "He can be physical, he can shoot the puck, he can can can" but he usually doesn't do those things. Max is annoying and set in his ways but if nothing else, he tries hard. He actually probably tries too hard to do too much. Al completely disappears for 20 game stretches - he doesn't score, he doesn't hit, he makes absolutely no impression at all unless he's taking a really stupid penalty - and that drives me crazy. I would gladly cast Al into a hockeyless pit of despair.
That said, if any one of these guys will be back, it's him. Let's face it, not everyone on your roster can be a highly skilled, highly paid star. Every team needs shorter, cheaper contracts to move around their core and Al is exactly that kind of player. He's not a total disaster on the ice and despite my complaints he has averaged just under 20 goals per season (19.75) for the last four seasons. As long as he's agreeable to a shorter contract for a reasonable amount of money (always the tricky part) I could see him sticking around.
The offense was pretty good last season overall but it would definitely help if the above guys all had good contract years especially Timmy who still seems to be the only player we have who can run a power play.
RYAN MILLER
Ryan was really bad last year. There are lots of valid reasons - the death of his cousin Matt right at the beginning of the season and the number of games he started being the two biggies - but the bottom line is, he played some very, very bad hockey. And good lord, what the heck happened with the shootout? He had ice water in his veins the previous two seasons and suddenly looked jittery the second a guy started moving in on a breakaway. As off as some of the other components of the team were last season, they missed the playoffs by four points. Better goaltending would have made up that ground easily. The team probably wouldn't have done much damage in the playoffs once they got there the way they were playing but they would've made it.
The good news is Ryan looks and sounds great right now as opposed to looking and sounded like he needed a very long nap at the end of April. It would appear that he built his frame up a little in the off-season which has to make a difference over the long grind of a hockey season. It sounds like he's also found a little better balance between playing goalie and trying to lead the team. Last year I think he tried to take on too much of the leadership mantle that was suddenly left vacant and his game suffered for it. There's an interview with him up on Sabres TV right now where he talks about how hard it is for a goalie to handle the responsibility of his game while also worrying about addressing questions and concerns about the rest of the team so it sounds like he's thought a lot about how to handle that coming into this season.
And let us all say a prayer to the mighty hockey gods that Patrick Lalime shows himself capable of playing 20 or so games in a somewhat adequate fashion. He played all of the preseason game I attended and he looked pretty good so fingers crossed.
JASON POMINVILLE AND JOCHEN HECHT
God bless Jochen and Pommers.
Looking at last season, Pommers is the one youngster on the team whom I have absolutely no complaint about. Even when he wasn't scoring he was finding some way to contribute night in and night out because he never, ever quit working hard. I think he got stronger on the defensive side of the puck, he's much more responsible with the puck than some of his buddies and he showed so much maturity off the ice. Everyone else seemed to have stretches where they were clearly panicking and flailing, pressing way too hard. If Pommers ever felt that way he sure did a good job of hiding it. I don't want to turn every post into "Lindy, for the love of god just name a captain please!" but even if you want to argue that he has some growing to do yet, I have no doubt he'll grow right into any letter you put on his chest.
Most of the above applies to Jochen too. Every team needs a Jochen - quiet, responsible and dependable. A lot of people may have been willing to part with him but I think he's exactly the kind of player you miss when he's not there. I'm still grouchy about a chart the Buffalo News ran last season after the trade deadline, suggesting that Brian Campbell's absence was responsible for the current skid because it completely ignore that Jochen was also out for that stretch and his absence always makes a difference.
(An aside since we're talking about Brian Campbell: In the ESPN preseason picks, Scott Burnside picked Campbell for the Norris. Someone please explain to Burnside that the Norris is for outstanding defensemen. There's obviously some confusion here.)
It's 1:18 in the morning so a couple quick predictions before I post this:
Leading goal scorer: Thomas Vanek
Leading assister: Derek Roy
Leading in total points: Derek Roy
Derek Roy's final tally: 36 goals, 65 assists, 101 points
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Dear Bucci...
Most hockey fans are familiar with the work of ESPN's John Buccigross. I have kind of a love-hate relationship with Bucci. On one hand, I love how enthusiastic he is about hockey and it's go to know that there are atleast two people at ESPN who think it counts as a sport. His casual, goofy style can be endearing. On the other hand, his casual, goofy style can easily veer into over-indulgent. I don't care what bands he's listening to. I don't care what he would name people's babies. (Seriously, people, do you not have favorite hockey players of your own who you can name your child after?). I really don't care about his book (coming soon to bookstores near you!). All of that stuff would be bearable if it didn't often completely overwhelm the actual hockey content which is why I'm reading him in the first place. But Bucci's weekly column is a regular part of my routine and he is often right about various things so it was with great interest that I read his season preview of the Buffalo Sabres. My immediate reaction was something along the lines of "What the hell?"
If you want to read the whole thing you can find it at ESPN.com (I'd post a link but I can't pull up the article at the moment for some reason). Bucci slams management for not re-signing Chris Drury and Daniel Briere and says the team may still have a sturdy undercarriage but won't be able to survive without its spine. But this was the section that really bugged me and quite frankly, kind of shocked me:
The Bruins and Blackhawks appear to be reconstructing from the rubble of ineptitude with new people throughout the organization. The Sabres are (for now) stuck with GM Darcy Regier and owner Tom Golisano and their vision of mediocrity. The Sabres are still a good team with a very good goalie, but the magic is gone.
Now I will admit that I'm a bit of a Darcy apologist and probably defend him even when he might not really deserve defending but this is so far over-the-top that it almost reaches Bucky Gleason levels. That, my friends, is not a good place to be. I was so bothered by this that I had to email Bucci. A couple people I've mentioned this to have said they'd like to read what I sent so I'm sharing it here. It's a pretty good final summary of how I'm feeling about the team and what I'm hoping to see this season. Plus it's already written so I don't have to think of anything new to say. Oh, something else I should clarify so there's no confusion. With his preview of each team, Bucci includes lyrics from a song. For us he chose Pete Yorn's The Man which is why I reference it in my letter.
Dear John,
"The Bruins and Blackhawks appear to be reconstructing from the rubble of ineptitude with new people throughout the organization. The Sabres are (for now) stuck with GM Darcy Regier and owner Tom Golisano and their vision of mediocrity. The Sabres are still a good team with a very good goalie, but the magic is gone."
All I can say is, what the heck?
Did Regier and Golisano make some mistakes with Briere and Drury? Probably. But they did attempt to sign Briere last summer - he took them to arbitration and he was rewarded a then ridiculous 5 million dollars. And they were allegedly willing to match Drury's offer from the Rangers and he, for whatever reason, wasn't interested. It's easy to say that the Sabres should've re-signed both guys but it's not as easy as handing them contracts and asking them to sign on the dotted line. In your Philly preview you say that Briere isn't worth the money he was paid and say his production will probably drop over the next few years but the Sabres should've held on to him? For all the (well deserved) praise heaped on both players, Buffalo didn't win a Cup while they were here. Chris and Danny crapped out in the playoffs this past year as much as any of the other players not named Ryan Miller did (I know you love Chris but he got smoked in the face-off circle during the Ottawa series among other things).
Darcy Regier has been in Buffalo for ten years. His reign of mediocrity includes more conference finals appearances than every other team but one in that period. It includes the revival of a bankrupt franchise and a pretty downtrodden fan base. It includes the development of a farm system that was so rich that a serious string of injuries last season barely affected the team's regular season performance. Before the salary cap, Regier had to deal with a small market budget and GMs who were constantly blowing up the market with their bloated contracts and somehow, some way, he usually managed to put a competitive team on the ice. Have they won a Stanley Cup during his tenure? No, obviously not. But you know, only one team wins it every year. It's not that easy to do. Regier has regularly iced teams that have had a chance, and as a fan that's all you can really ask for. I know a lot of fan bases - including Chicago and Boston - who would happily take the mediocrity we've been saddled with during the Regier years.
Listen, I'm not going to argue that losing Briere and Drury isn't going to have an affect on the team this season. It certainly is and as a fan I'll miss watching them and I wish them well in their new locations. But the Sabres are still a very good team. We have two lines who can score like crazy cakes (Vanek-Roy-Afinogenov and
Kotalik-Connolly-Pominville) and a third line that will chip in its share (Gaustad-Hecht-Stafford). We have a great top defensive pairing in Tallinder and Lydman and a number of mobile, puck-moving defensemen. And we have a rapidly maturing Ryan Miller who was the one bright spot of the postseason last year. He kept the team in every single game, including a few they had no right to be in. Maybe most importantly, most of the above players are Buffalo draftees (Regier again) who have grown up and developed together as players and people. From all appearances, they like and care for each other and I think it's a mistake to underestimate the importance of that. I don't think it's incompetence or arrogance to let two guys who are being vastly overpaid walk out of town and show some faith in the undercarriage, especially when the undercarriage is skilled and still maturing. The Sabres most effective line last season is still here. Their best defensive pairing is still here. A vastly gifted playmaker who was on the shelf all last year is still here. Their very good young goalie is still here. The fact that these players haven't had to carry the show, doesn't mean they can't and won't. I'm thinking a little less "The Man" and a lot more "The Kids are Alright."
So yeah... I'm calling it now: The Sabres will finish second in the division (behind Ottawa), fourth in the conference, and will be hitting their groove in March around the time the Rangers implode.
Despite the above, I am glad to see you and hockey back. (But you're still wrong.)
Thanks,
Heather Bermingham
www.topshelfcookies.blogspot.com
www.hlog.blogspot.com
I did get a response. "Thanks for reading Heather! Enjoy the season! John." Clearly he knew my argument was air-tight and beyond debate. I'm disappointed. Bucky would've written back to tell me why exactly I was wrong.
So yeah... I'm optimistic. I know it's not going to be the same team it was last year but I'm really not convinced it's going to be a bad team. In fact, it could be a pretty darn good team. If nothing else, I fully expect to see the kids play their hearts out. They all seem tired of talking about Drury and Briere and they should have a huge chip on their shoulders about the way their contributions over the last couple of seasons are being disregarded. Derek, Max, and Van should be furious that people are acting like their line was unimportant last year. Hank and Toni should be annoyed that Drury evidently killed off all the penalties and shut down the opposition's best players. Pommers should be upset that Briere supposedly made him the hockey player he was. Ryan should be really pissed that Chris and Danny are being considered the difference makers. The entire team should be worked up about the way people are acting like Chris and Danny are the only ones who experienced the ups and downs of the last two seasons, like no one else remembers how great it felt to win and how heart-breaking it was to lose. I'm ready to see what the kids are going to do and I'm really glad I only have to wait... 17 and a half more hours!
If you want to read the whole thing you can find it at ESPN.com (I'd post a link but I can't pull up the article at the moment for some reason). Bucci slams management for not re-signing Chris Drury and Daniel Briere and says the team may still have a sturdy undercarriage but won't be able to survive without its spine. But this was the section that really bugged me and quite frankly, kind of shocked me:
The Bruins and Blackhawks appear to be reconstructing from the rubble of ineptitude with new people throughout the organization. The Sabres are (for now) stuck with GM Darcy Regier and owner Tom Golisano and their vision of mediocrity. The Sabres are still a good team with a very good goalie, but the magic is gone.
Now I will admit that I'm a bit of a Darcy apologist and probably defend him even when he might not really deserve defending but this is so far over-the-top that it almost reaches Bucky Gleason levels. That, my friends, is not a good place to be. I was so bothered by this that I had to email Bucci. A couple people I've mentioned this to have said they'd like to read what I sent so I'm sharing it here. It's a pretty good final summary of how I'm feeling about the team and what I'm hoping to see this season. Plus it's already written so I don't have to think of anything new to say. Oh, something else I should clarify so there's no confusion. With his preview of each team, Bucci includes lyrics from a song. For us he chose Pete Yorn's The Man which is why I reference it in my letter.
Dear John,
"The Bruins and Blackhawks appear to be reconstructing from the rubble of ineptitude with new people throughout the organization. The Sabres are (for now) stuck with GM Darcy Regier and owner Tom Golisano and their vision of mediocrity. The Sabres are still a good team with a very good goalie, but the magic is gone."
All I can say is, what the heck?
Did Regier and Golisano make some mistakes with Briere and Drury? Probably. But they did attempt to sign Briere last summer - he took them to arbitration and he was rewarded a then ridiculous 5 million dollars. And they were allegedly willing to match Drury's offer from the Rangers and he, for whatever reason, wasn't interested. It's easy to say that the Sabres should've re-signed both guys but it's not as easy as handing them contracts and asking them to sign on the dotted line. In your Philly preview you say that Briere isn't worth the money he was paid and say his production will probably drop over the next few years but the Sabres should've held on to him? For all the (well deserved) praise heaped on both players, Buffalo didn't win a Cup while they were here. Chris and Danny crapped out in the playoffs this past year as much as any of the other players not named Ryan Miller did (I know you love Chris but he got smoked in the face-off circle during the Ottawa series among other things).
Darcy Regier has been in Buffalo for ten years. His reign of mediocrity includes more conference finals appearances than every other team but one in that period. It includes the revival of a bankrupt franchise and a pretty downtrodden fan base. It includes the development of a farm system that was so rich that a serious string of injuries last season barely affected the team's regular season performance. Before the salary cap, Regier had to deal with a small market budget and GMs who were constantly blowing up the market with their bloated contracts and somehow, some way, he usually managed to put a competitive team on the ice. Have they won a Stanley Cup during his tenure? No, obviously not. But you know, only one team wins it every year. It's not that easy to do. Regier has regularly iced teams that have had a chance, and as a fan that's all you can really ask for. I know a lot of fan bases - including Chicago and Boston - who would happily take the mediocrity we've been saddled with during the Regier years.
Listen, I'm not going to argue that losing Briere and Drury isn't going to have an affect on the team this season. It certainly is and as a fan I'll miss watching them and I wish them well in their new locations. But the Sabres are still a very good team. We have two lines who can score like crazy cakes (Vanek-Roy-Afinogenov and
Kotalik-Connolly-Pominville) and a third line that will chip in its share (Gaustad-Hecht-Stafford). We have a great top defensive pairing in Tallinder and Lydman and a number of mobile, puck-moving defensemen. And we have a rapidly maturing Ryan Miller who was the one bright spot of the postseason last year. He kept the team in every single game, including a few they had no right to be in. Maybe most importantly, most of the above players are Buffalo draftees (Regier again) who have grown up and developed together as players and people. From all appearances, they like and care for each other and I think it's a mistake to underestimate the importance of that. I don't think it's incompetence or arrogance to let two guys who are being vastly overpaid walk out of town and show some faith in the undercarriage, especially when the undercarriage is skilled and still maturing. The Sabres most effective line last season is still here. Their best defensive pairing is still here. A vastly gifted playmaker who was on the shelf all last year is still here. Their very good young goalie is still here. The fact that these players haven't had to carry the show, doesn't mean they can't and won't. I'm thinking a little less "The Man" and a lot more "The Kids are Alright."
So yeah... I'm calling it now: The Sabres will finish second in the division (behind Ottawa), fourth in the conference, and will be hitting their groove in March around the time the Rangers implode.
Despite the above, I am glad to see you and hockey back. (But you're still wrong.)
Thanks,
Heather Bermingham
www.topshelfcookies.blogspot.com
www.hlog.blogspot.com
I did get a response. "Thanks for reading Heather! Enjoy the season! John." Clearly he knew my argument was air-tight and beyond debate. I'm disappointed. Bucky would've written back to tell me why exactly I was wrong.
So yeah... I'm optimistic. I know it's not going to be the same team it was last year but I'm really not convinced it's going to be a bad team. In fact, it could be a pretty darn good team. If nothing else, I fully expect to see the kids play their hearts out. They all seem tired of talking about Drury and Briere and they should have a huge chip on their shoulders about the way their contributions over the last couple of seasons are being disregarded. Derek, Max, and Van should be furious that people are acting like their line was unimportant last year. Hank and Toni should be annoyed that Drury evidently killed off all the penalties and shut down the opposition's best players. Pommers should be upset that Briere supposedly made him the hockey player he was. Ryan should be really pissed that Chris and Danny are being considered the difference makers. The entire team should be worked up about the way people are acting like Chris and Danny are the only ones who experienced the ups and downs of the last two seasons, like no one else remembers how great it felt to win and how heart-breaking it was to lose. I'm ready to see what the kids are going to do and I'm really glad I only have to wait... 17 and a half more hours!
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